Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".