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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.