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Chalk it up to fate, luck, or a oddity of chance, depending on your preference. If Australia's first day in Adelaide proved to be a jigsaw puzzle hurled into the air, most of the pieces landed the right way up and in the correct place. This has been a familiar pattern for the hosts in this contest: monstered by England's bowlers in Perth, only to orchestrate an more dramatic implosion; stumbling in Brisbane, rescued by the lower order.

For another day, the trend persisted: be it dodgy catching or unreliable technology, things keep falling into place for the Australians.

The tourists, meanwhile, arrived with a gameplan built on the belief that they couldn't win in Australia with medium-fast seamers and a wicketkeeper standing close, then proceeded to lose to medium-fast seamers with a wicketkeeper in close. They were handed the gift of no Pat Cummins, an absent Josh Hazlewood, no Nathan Lyon and yet proceeded to suffer two defeats in six days. Their third encounter delivered the following boon: Steve Smith missing with an ailment, their very own Ghost of Ashes Past substituted in the middle order by a creaking, struggling top-order batter whom Australia had previously attempted to drop.

Out of courtesy, England felt compelled to drop him too. In the cordon, on five runs, when the total would have been 50 for three. A couple of hours earlier, Usman Khawaja's career had been as good as over, with the panel unveiling a new option called the Travis Head Dashing Opener™. Soon after, Khawaja had been twice reprieved, first by Smith's lack of balance, then by Harry Brook's spill at slip.

A Unshackled Innings from the Number Five

The move down the order had merely saved him a brief period at the top, but that meant he largely avoided Jofra Archer's fierce opening burst, a potentially critical missed contest given Khawaja's recent struggles against quality pace. Liberated, with nothing to lose, Khawaja played perhaps his most assured and composed innings since his last comeback through the middle of the batling order in 2022.

Josh Tongue was not much slower than Archer, but Khawaja capitalized on his mistakes while using Ben Stokes's short ball to get his trademark pull shot going. He identified Will Jacks's vulnerability as a day-one spinner and thumped him relentlessly. There was a fifty after lunch, during a crucial rebuild with Alex Carey after some Christmas giveaways.

Smith may be Australia's best bat in historical context, Carey might be their most in-form one right this moment, after his another hundred this year.

A Chance That Slipped Away, but Impact Made

This is still a good chance of this being Khawaja's final match, with Smith to come back and the rest of the order unlikely to change, so a hundred that could have been both comeback and send-off would have been one hell of a story. But straining against late-career limitations left it too distant. A legendary captain in his last Test was fighting the end, hoping for one last ton, out instead attempting a big shot a spinner to deep midwicket. Khawaja, older still, was out slog-sweeping a spinner to deep midwicket for 82.

Still, it was defining for the side, and another example of how discombobulation fails to faze these Australians. Lose your top batter minutes before the match? The replacement has it covered. A weird batting order to follow? It poses no issue either.

The Wicketkeeper's Local Triumph

Carey as wicketkeeper would traditionally bat at No 7, while the original idea at the outset was to bed in Cameron Green at No 6. The spot opened up by Travis Head's move was at No 5. And yet, instead of using Josh Inglis there, Australia brought him in at No 7 and promoted Green and Carey up.

Nothing feels normal about placing an active wicketkeeper ahead of an off-duty one, but on this day it proved effective, perhaps because Carey was unburdened in the first innings. He did get the century that Khawaja was denied, accumulating runs in his usual positive way, creating a massive Adelaide moment as hometown crowds filled the ground.

Ultimately, he shepherded Australia's total from 85 when he came in to 321 when he was out, and further runs are possible for the tail on the next day. Smith was absent, five of the top seven made scores of little substance, but Australia are still on top, with far more runs than looked likely at several stages.

England's only path to alter this dynamic is a powerful response: take two wickets, bat for a long time in the heat. Anything else relies on the fates, or luck, or a twist of probability. It's unwise to rely on any of them.