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Only 48 hours before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots that came in later and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously went for Zohran now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. However no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.