Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”