NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
As we head into the final week of the NFL regular season, only a pair of postseason berths are still up for grabs. However, a great deal more is on the line, such as the coveted #1 rankings in each conference and several division titles.
The schedule makers have crafted a dramatic ending, with the two remaining postseason places to be decided in two direct head-to-head matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The victor of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game will claim the #4 spot and a home game in the first playoff round. At the same time, Buffalo and Los Angeles are set as wildcard teams.
Houston require a victory coupled with a Jaguars loss to jump from the fifth seed to the third seed. The Broncos will earn the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a loss could pave the way for New England or Jacksonville to claim it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The South division will be claimed by the winner of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, earning them the fourth seed. However, Carolina could still win the divisional title even with a loss, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are locked into the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, however, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and the 49ers, with a week off and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The top seed in each conference earns a crucial first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the play-offs.
During Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six playoff teams compete: the #2 team hosts the #7 team, #3 plays #6, and #4 faces #5.
For the second round, the #1 seeds enter the competition, facing the lowest surviving team. The AFC and NFC championship games are then played at the highest seed, highlighting the critical value of earning that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce grudge match reaches its climax in the last contest of the regular season. The divisional title and a postseason spot at stake, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
Pittsburgh have been up and down all year, while Baltimore started poorly but remain in contention. Key injuries could be decisive: The Steelers may miss key target DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's signal-caller their MVP QB is questionable with a health issue.
Star rusher Derrick Henry could be the x-factor for Baltimore in what is set up as a hard-hitting, defensive struggle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is on the line when Seattle travels to the 49ers. The victorious team secures the NFC's top seed and the path to the championship game that comes with it.
This matchup features an explosive San Francisco attack against a stingy Seattle defense. Since quarterback their young passer came back, the 49ers have been the NFL's highest scorers. On the other hand, the Seahawks' unit is ranked among the best in the NFL.
Seattle QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on mistakes that have haunted him this year. Whoever comes out on top gains a huge advantage for the playoff run.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team comes into this contest with much momentum. Tampa Bay have lost four straight, while the Panthers have squandered chances to secure the title.
For Carolina it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. The Buccaneers, the situation is trickier. Even with a victory, they need help from the Falcons-Saints matchup to claim the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
Denver control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A victory over a Chargers team likely to rest key players gets it done.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Broncos loss would give the top seed to New England.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the dark horse. They need a win and defeats for the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an unlikely ascent to #1. More pressingly, a Jacksonville defeat could see them passed by the Houston Texans in the division standings.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
